The Shift: Are the Dems shifting on Israel?
More Democrats are beginning to criticize Israel, but it will add up to an actual policy shift?
There has been a growing anxiety among Israel’s defenders over the current state of U.S. public opinion for years now.
Poll after poll shows that Israel standing is diminishing among pretty much every type of American, besides the obvious exception of Republicans.
As sympathy for Palestinians has grown nationally, so has the number of congressional members with the audacity to criticize Israel in harsh terms. That number used to hover somewhere around zero, and now there are a dozen or so progressives in the House who stand up for Palestine. AIPAC is about to spend over $100 million to oust as many of them as they possibly can.
However, things have seemingly become a little more dire for pro-Israel groups in recent weeks. Israel has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, destroyed Gaza, and been embroiled in enough high-profile atrocities to draw the attention of mainstream organizations and establishment Democrats. The killing of seven World Central Kitchen (WCK) workers sparked a worldwide backlash and even prompted the Biden administration to use the word “ceasefire.”
We also saw Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) join dozens of her Democratic colleagues by signing a letter calling for Biden’s latest weapons transfer to be halted.
“In light of [the killing of the WCK workers], we strongly urge you to reconsider your recent decision to authorize the transfer of a new arms package to Israel, and to withhold this and any future offensive arms transfers until a full investigation into the airstrike is completed,” it reads.
“We also urge you to withhold these transfers if Israel fails to sufficiently mitigate harm to innocent civilians in Gaza, including aid workers, and if it fails to facilitate — or arbitrarily denies or restricts the transport and delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza,” the letter continues.
This is certainly notable.
Pelosi has been a strident supporter of Israel since joining Congress and the current assault hadn’t inspired anything resembling a shift yet. In addition to claiming that Palestine activists were in the pocket of Putin, the former House Speaker also insisted that U.S. weapons haven’t been used to commit Israeli atrocities. So her signature on the letter is certainly a surprise.
No one would confuse Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) for a Squad member, but the former vice-presidential candidate is also calling on the Biden administration to “withhold bombs and other offensive weapons that can kill and wound civilians and humanitarian aid workers.”
Then we have Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who hasn’t exactly led on this issue either. At a recent event, she was asked about the International Court of Justice ruling on the issue of Israel committing genocide. Did she agree that it was plausible?
“If you want to do it as an application of law, I believe that they’ll find that it is genocide, and they have ample evidence to do so,” she told the audience member.
Will this tonal shift add up to anything in the way of policy? There are a thousand reasons to be skeptical. It wasn’t long ago that nearly every Democratic lawmaker was prattling on about the horror of racist policing and what did that yield in terms of concrete policies?
Furthermore, we are merely talking about letters and statements. As soon as Warren conceded that Israel could be committing genocide, she moved on to say she wanted to get beyond the “labels argument”, whatever that means.
However, if there’s hope to be gleaned it probably stems from some of the Democratic criticisms of Biden. We’re used to seeing that kind of thing from congress members like Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, but others rarely express reservations publicly. It’s an election year after all.
Last week a “tense” phone call between Biden and Netanyahu resulted in the Israeli Prime Minister opening up the Erez border crossing. It was a reminder of how much influence the U.S. has and how complicit they’ve been throughout the assault on Gaza.
Biden wasn’t exactly cheered by his fellow party members though.
“One day the president is ‘angry’ at Netanyahu, the next day he is ‘very angry,’ the next day he is ‘very very angry.’ So what? At the same time there is support for more military aid in a supplemental bill,” Senator Bernie Sanders (D-I), told the Pod Save America podcast.
“You cannot continue to talk about your worries about humanitarian situation in Gaza and then give Netanyahu another $10 billion, or more bombs. You cannot do that. That is hypocritical,” Sanders added.
“I do not believe that opening up a new crossing into Gaza is enough,” Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) told MSNBC.
“There should not be a total blank check. We should not have a pattern where the Netanyahu government ignores the president of the United States and we just send more 2,000-pound bombs,” Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) told Reuters.
The Van Hollen comments inspired an exceptionally funny Op-Ed in the Baltimore Jewish Times, which encapsulates some of the aforementioned anxiety.
“There was a time when we counted Van Hollen as a challenging but reliable friend of the Jewish community and the state of Israel,” it reads. “Those days are gone. We face the uncomfortable reality that Chris Van Hollen is not our friend.”
Summer Lee
David Weigel is in Semafor reporting on the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s 12th district, where progressive incumbent Summer Lee is trying to fend off challenger Bhavini Patel.
Patel has gotten a boost from GOP megadonor Jeff Yass. He bankrolls Moderate PAC, which has run ads targeting Lee.
However, there’s no signs of AIPAC in Pittsburgh. The group simply hasn’t spent.
That’s pretty shocking considering the Israel lobbying group spent almost $5 million in 2022, trying to prevent Lee from reaching office. The former State Senator had angered the organization by saying some commonsensical things about Israel’s 2021 assault on Gaza.
Lee narrowly prevailed in that race and early in this one didn’t look encouraging. AIPAC was able to recruit a candidate they wanted in Patel, so why are they seemingly sitting it out?
Weigel notes that support for a ceasefire is the mainstream position among Democratic voters. He quotes Lee herself, who says, “Instead of shaming the uncommitted movement and calling them extremists, we need to recognize that the Democratic Party can’t win without this coalition.”
Polling shows this is undoubtedly true, but this trend hasn’t stopped AIPAC from spending in the past. Two years ago the group used its United Democracy Project PAC to run ads attacking Israel critics across Democratic primaries, but the group knows damn well that the issue no longer resonates with voters. So, none of the ads mentioned Israel, Palestine, or foreign policy at all.
No, the issue here is money. Lee’s commitment to Palestine and the attacks she’s endured from pro-Israel groups, have increased her war chest. “By the end of 2023, she’d raised $1.4 million; she raised $1.9 million, total, for the 2022 race where she had to fend off millions of dollars from the extended AIPAC universe,” writes Weigel.
“A Republican-funded Super PAC threatened to spend $100 million against us — and our grassroots people-powered movement has responded loud and clear,” Lee said in a statement in a statement earlier this year, after raising over $1 million from small donors. “I am so proud of the multigenerational, mulitracial movement we have built in Western Pennsylvania to protect and expand our democracy — it is our greatest defense against the dark money Super PACs and corporate lobbies who seek to undermine it.”
In 2022 it was eventually revealed that AIPAC had secretly intervened in some races through various PACs, so it’s possible they’re looking to impact this contest behind the scenes.
However, the fact they’re not going all in to defeat Lee demonstrates how the Democratic base has changed.